Table 1 Diagnostic measures of models predicting the performance of the tennis players

NOVAK DJOKOVIC

 Probability of winning

RMSE

MAE

MAPE

  ARIMA

0.02126

0.01616

2.7436

  ETS

0.02126

0.01614

2.7383

  NNAR

0.01601

0.01255

2.1618

  TBATS

0.02146

0.01675

2.9503

 Double defaults

  ARIMA

56.5542

43.7351

57.2306

  ETS

66.9577

49.8517

43.0383

  NNAR

53.0077

41.7159

35.3696

  TBATS

62.6287

45.3745

62.4586

 ACES

  ARIMA

128.4564

109.9007

89.2184

  ETS

144.0134

119.6025

106.7189

  NNAR

104.2740

85.51023

28.7619

  TBATS

144.3174

121.1243

102.2265

 Dominance

  ARIMA

0.4705

0.3837

17.2226

  ETS

0.3647

0.2891

13.8187

  NNAR

0.3597

0.2989

13.9716

  TBATS

0.4276

0.3493

20.3316

RAFAEL NADAL

 Probability of winning

  ARIMA

0.0660

0.04760

6.0412

  ETS

0.0660

0.04760

6.0416

  NNAR

0.0461

0.04139

4.9641

  TBATS

0.0660

0.04768

6.0075

Double defaults

  ARIMA

24.6661

19.6842

20.9383

  ETS

24.6674

19.6845

20.9398

  NNAR

20.5791

14.8302

15.8998

  TBATS

24.5742

19.4389

20.8931

ACES

  ARIMA

69.9294

59.6066

41.1588

  ETS

69.9329

59.6110

41.1625

  NNAR

60.1918

49.4050

27.5613

  TBATS

69.5792

59.0015

40.9155

Dominance

  ARIMA

0.5712

0.4684

20.9455

  ETS

0.5712

0.4684

20.9464

  NNAR

0.5080

0.3964

16.1695

  TBATS

0.5736

0.4608

20.0164

ROGER FEDERER

 Probability of winning

  ARIMA

0.0686

0.0509

6.1968

  ETS

0.0686

0.0510

6.1972

  NNAR

0.0544

0.0398

4.9312

  TBATS

0.0699

0.0537

6.5880

Double defaults

  ARIMA

40.1647

29.6454

98.8794

  ETS

40.1667

29.6439

98.8862

  NNAR

35.9006

26.1837

75.8978

  TBATS

36.5587

29.1475

94.0206

ACES

  ARIMA

202.3148

145.5033

60.13508

  ETS

168.8342

116.2379

66.44011

  NNAR

145.9614

110.6277

57.69298

  TBATS

148.8688

118.6755

59.20205

 Dominance

  ARIMA

0.5654

0.4243

18.4607

  ETS

0.5655

0.4243

18.4622

  NNAR

0.4849

0.3552

16.3458

  TBATS

0.5672

0.4247

18.9381